And Now 19 Games
So this could go a lot of ways. I could feel like a shattered man (OK not really) by the time I post another of these, or I could still be lingering around 50%, almost as disturbing, or…
There remains an issue with more close games not going my way than the affirmative, a discouraging fact, but also an optimistic one because any calculation of a return to the mean in coin flip games would benefit me greatly, and I have to think that sample size will bring that in for me. Well, here’s the sample size. I have 19 games this weekend, with a couple more very close calls that I could add tomorrow morning, making 20 or 21.
My record on the season stands at 21-22, 48.8%, certainly not good enough, but given the starts I had in both 2020 and 2021, I’m actually rather encouraged by it, so long as the last half of the season demonstrates that the system still has a strong tendency to scale out most of the teams properly, as their in season performance dictates and the results follow as they did in every year, including Covid days. I think it will. I am still a bit concerned about the first months of future seasons, but for now that’s a down the road problem that I’ll have to revisit should I continue without decent Septembers. Either way, let’s have a good October, shall we? Here are my games:
Friday
Middle Tennessee +5 at home vs Texas San Antonio
UNLV -14 at home vs New Mexico
Saturday
Michigan -10.5 at Iowa
Kentucky +6.5 at Mississippi
Minnesota -12.5 at home vs Purdue
Army -8 at home vs Georgia State
Louisville -16 at Boston College
Northern Illinois -3.5 at Ball State
Baylor -2.5 at home vs Oklahoma State
Penn State -26.5 at home vs Northwestern
Maryland -7.5 at home vs Michigan State
Central Michigan +7.5 at Toledo
Mississippi State -3.5 at home vs Texas A&M
UTEP -3 at Charlotte
Missouri +28 at home vs Georgia
Clemson -6.5 at home vs North Carolina State
Indiana +6 at Nebraska
Rice +10.5 at home vs UAB
Pittsburgh -22 at home vs Georgia Tech
That’s 13 favorites and 12 home games, a ratio that’s a little more in my comfort zone. And if you’re thinking, well Kyle, betting Missouri against Georgia at home, in sand, on the Moon, in a swimming pool, anywhere else you might think of, regardless of points, is definitely not in my comfort zone. Yeah me neither. We’ll see how it goes!
